Working Papers

CENTER FOR STATISTICS AND THE SOCIAL SCIENCES,
WORKING PAPERS

Working Papers available for download are in postscript or PDF format unless stated otherwise. If you are unable to read postscript files, or you wish to request Working Papers not available online, please contact: the webmaster or csss@u.washington.edu.

2008
Working Paper no. 86(490K bytes): "A hierarchical eigenmodel for pooled covariance estimation"; Peter Hoff; March, 2008.
Working Paper no. 85(1.0M bytes): "Demographic Consequences of HIV Epidemics and Effects of Different Male Circumcision Intervention Designs: Suggestive Findings from Microsimulation"; Sam Clark , Jeffrey W. Eaton, Michelle M. Elmquist, Natalie R. Ottenweiller and Jenna K. Snavely; March, 2008.
Working Paper no. 84(403K bytes): "The mode oriented stochastic search (MOSS) algorithm for log-linear models with conjugate priors"; Adrian Dobra and Helene Massam; March, 2008
Working Paper no. 83(278K bytes): "The Generalized Shuttle Algorithm"; Adrian Dobra and Stephen E. Fienberg; February, 2008.
Working Paper no. 82(856K bytes): "Bayesian melding for estimating uncertainty in national HIV prevalence estimates"; Leontine Alkema, Adrian E. Raftery , and Tim Brown; February, 2008.
2007
Working Paper no. 81(3.4M bytes): "Modeling homophily and stochastic equivalence in symmetric relational data"; Peter Hoff; November, 2007.
Working Paper no. 80(207K bytes): "Unraveling the Fortunes of the Fortunate: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) Approach"; Theo Eicher , Chris Papageorgiou, and Oliver Roehn; October, 2007.
Working Paper no. 79(407K bytes): "In Search of a Sulphur Dioxide Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach"; Jeffrey Begun and Theo Eicher; October, 2007.
Working Paper no. 78(173K bytes): "Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects"; Theo Eicher , Christian Henn, and Chris Papageorgiou; October, 2007.
Working Paper no. 77(1.6M bytes): "Representing Degree Distributions, Clustering, and Homophily in Social Networks With Latent Cluster Random Effects Models"; Pavel Krivitsky, Mark S. Handcock , Adrian E. Raftery , and Peter Hoff; August, 2007.
Working Paper no. 76(408K bytes): "Determining Growth Determinants: Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging"; Theo Eicher , Chris Papageorgiou, and Adrian E. Raftery; August, 2007.
Working Paper no. 75(369K bytes): "Modeling Social Networks with Sampled or Missing Data"; Mark S. Handcock and Krista Gile; April, 2007.
Working Paper no. 74(486K bytes): "Comparison of Maximum Pseudo Likelihood and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Exponential Family Random Graph Models"; Marijtje A.J. van Duijn, Krista Gile, and Mark S. Handcock; April, 2007.
Working Paper no. 73(485K bytes): "Split-Sample Score Tests in Linear Instrumental Variables Regression"; Saraswata Chaudhuri, Thomas Richardson , James Robins, and Eric Zivot; Revised version: June 2006.
Original version(485K bytes): March, 2007.
Working Paper no. 72(346K bytes): "The Yield Curve Through Time and Across Maturities"; Richard Startz and Kwok Ping Tsang; February, 2007.
Working Paper no. 70(287K bytes): "The Effect of Weather Forecast Uncertainty Visualization on Decision Making"; Limor Nadav-Greenberg, Susan L. Joslyn, and Meng U. Taing; January, 2007.
Working Paper no. 69(739K bytes): "Probabilistic Projections of HIV Prevalence Using Bayesian Melding"; Leontine Alkema, Adrian E. Raftery , and Sam Clark; January, 2007.
2006
Working Paper no. 68(202K bytes): "Kruskal-Wallis and Friedman type tests for nested effects in hierarchical designs"; Assaf P. Oron and Peter Hoff; December 2006.
Working Paper no. 67(101K bytes): "Interpreting Product-Variable Models of Interaction Effects"; Lowell Hargens; Revised version: February 2008.
Original version( 92K bytes): November 2006.
Working Paper no. 66(117K bytes): "Model-based Assessment of the Impact of Missing Data on Inference for Networks"; Krista Gile and Mark S. Handcock; November 2006.
Working Paper no. 65(502K bytes): "Marginal Set Likelihood for Semiparametric Copula Estimation"; Peter Hoff; October 2006.
Working Paper no. 64(742K bytes): "Sequential Importance Sampling for Bipartite Graphs With Applications to Likelihood-Based Inference"; Ryan Admiraal and Mark S. Handcock; August 2006.
Working Paper no. 63(459K bytes): "The Effect of Probabilistic Information on Threshold Forecasts"; Susan Joslyn, Karla Pak, David Jones, John Pyles, and Earl Hunt; July 2006.
Working Paper no. 62(474K bytes): "Strategies in Naturalistic Decision-Making: A Cognitive Task Analysis of Naval Weather Forecasting"; Susan Joslyn and David Jones; July 2006.
Working Paper no. 61(549K bytes): "Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Cycle Approach"; Arabinda Basistha and Richard Startz; June 2006.
Working Paper no. 60(2.0M bytes): "Estimating the Integrated Likelihood via Posterior Simulation Using the Harmonic Mean Identity"; Adrian E. Raftery , Michael A. Newton, Jaya M. Satagopan, and Pavel Krivitsky; Revised version: June 2006.
Original version(2.0M bytes): April 2006.
Working Paper no. 59(264K bytes): "Identification and Likelihood Inference for Recursive Linear Models with Correlated Errors"; Mathias Drton, Michael Eichler, and Thomas Richardson; March 2006.
Working Paper no. 58(244K bytes): "A Joint Econometric Model of Marriage and Partner Choice"; Elaina Rose; March 2006.
Working Paper no. 57(707K bytes): "Assessing Uncertainty in Urban Simulations Using Bayesian Melding"; Hana Sevcikova, Adrian E. Raftery , and Paul Waddell; February 2006.
Working Paper no. 56(244K bytes): "Binomial Autoregressive Moving Average Models with an Application to U.S. Recessions"; Richard Startz; February 2006.
Working Paper no. 55(450K bytes): "Everybody Out of the Pool! Reconstructing the Democratic Peace"; Michael D. Ward , Randolph M. Siverson, and Xun Cao; February 2006.
Working Paper no. 54(205K bytes): "Multiplicative latent factor models for description and prediction of social networks"; Peter Hoff; January 2006.
2005
Working Paper no. 53(1.6M bytes) [PDF(3.2M bytes )]: "Education and Hypergamy, and the 'Success Gap'"; Elaina Rose; October 2005.
Working Paper no. 52(1.6M bytes) [PDF(289K bytes )]: "Recidivism and Social Interactions"; Sibel Sirakaya; October 2005.
Working Paper no. 51(1.3M bytes) [PDF(353K bytes )]: "Alleviating Linear Ecological Bias and Optimal Design with Subsample Data"; Adam Glynn, Jon Wakefield, Mark S. Handcock , and Thomas Richardson; September 2005.
Working Paper no. 50(480K bytes) [PDF(106K bytes )]: "Will the Market Bear Your Asking Price?"; Elena Erosheva; August 2005.
Working Paper no. 49(9.9M bytes) [PDF(1.3M bytes )]: "Spectral Clustering for Microsoft Netscan Data"; Anne Patrikainen and Marina Meila; July 2005.
Working Paper no. 48(1.0M bytes) [PDF(119K bytes )]: "Generalised Linear Models Incorporating Population Level Information: An Empirical Likelihood Based Approach"; Sanjay Chauduri, Mark S. Handcock and Michael S. Rendall; May 2005.
Working Paper no. 47(1.8M bytes) [PDF(164K bytes )]: "Goodness of Fit of Social Network Models"; David R. Hunter, Mark S. Handcock and Steven M. Goodreau; April 2005.
Working Paper no. 46(1.5M bytes) [PDF(341K bytes )]: "Model-Based Clustering for Social Networks"; Mark S. Handcock , Adrian E. Raftery and Jeremy Tantrum; April 2005.
Working Paper no. 45(9.6M bytes) [PDF(2.7M bytes )]: "Persistent Patterns of International Commerce"; Michael D. Ward and Peter Hoff; January 2005.
2004
Working Paper no. 44(960K bytes) [PDF(181K bytes )]: "Interval Estimates for Epidemic Thresholds in Two-Sex Network Models"; Mark S. Handcock and James Holland Jones; August 2004.
Working Paper no. 43(6.1M bytes) [PDF(238K bytes )]: "Inference in curved exponential family models for networks"; David R. Hunter and Mark S. Handcock; August 2004.
Working Paper no. 42( 12M bytes) [PDF(544K bytes )]: "New specifications for exponential random graph models"; Tom A.B. Snijders, Phillippa E. Pattison, Garry L. Robbins and Mark S. Handcock; April 2004.
Working Paper no. 41(1.9M bytes) [PDF(510K bytes )]: "Positional Estimation within the Latent Space Model for Networks"; Susan Shortreed and Mark S. Handcock; April 2004.
Working Paper no. 40(856K bytes) [PDF(144K bytes )]: "Bayesian Mixed Membership Models for Soft Classification"; Elena Erosheva and Stephen E. Fienberg; April 2004.
2003
Working Paper no. 39( 17M bytes) [PDF(854K bytes )]: "Assessing Degeneracy in Statistical Models of Social Networks"; Mark S. Handcock; December 2003.
Working Paper no. 38(1.4M bytes) [PDF(255K bytes )]: "Model-based Clustering with Dissimilarities: A Bayesian Approach"; Man-Suk Oh and Adrian E. Raftery; December 2003.
Working Paper no. 37(6.6M bytes) [PDF(2.7M bytes )]: "A Statistical View of Learning in the Centipede Game"; Anton Westveld and Peter Hoff; December 2003.
Working Paper no. 36(1.5M bytes) [PDF(360K bytes )]: "Improved regression estimation of a multivariate relationship with population data on the bivariate relationship"; Mark S. Handcock , Michael S. Rendall, and Jacob E. Cheadle; September 2003.
Working Paper no. 35(3.2M bytes) [PDF(7.4M bytes )]: "Modeling Dependencies in International Relations Networks"; Peter Hoff and Michael D. Ward; September 2003.
Working Paper no. 34(274K bytes) [PDF(316K bytes )]: "Long-Run Performance of Bayesian Model Averaging"; Adrian E. Raftery and Yingye Zheng; July 2003.
Working Paper no. 33( 32M bytes) [PDF(283K bytes )]: "Does Education Really Disadvantage Women in the Marriage Market?"; Elaina Rose; July 2003.
Working Paper no. 32(968K bytes) [PDF(338K bytes )]: "Bilinear Mixed Effects Models for Dyadic Data"; Peter Hoff; July 2003.
Working Paper no. 31 [PDF(193K bytes )]: "On 'Sexual contacts and epidemic thresholds,' models and inference for Sexual partnership distributions"; Mark S. Handcock , James Holland Jones and Martina Morris; May 2003.
Working Paper no. 30 [PDF(424K bytes )]: "Hearing about a Job: A model of Differential Information Flow and Job Matching"; Katherine Stovel and Christine Fountain; April 2003.
Working Paper no. 29(938K bytes) [PDF(221K bytes )]: "Likelihood-Based Inference for Stochastic Models of Sexual Network Formation"; Mark S. Handcock and James Holland Jones; January 2003.
Working Paper no. 28(1.3M bytes) [PDF(2.2M bytes )]: "Random Effects Models for Network Data"; Peter Hoff; January 2003.
2002
Working Paper no. 27 [PDF(326K bytes )]: "Applying Relative Distribution Methods in R"; Mark S. Handcock and Eric M. Aldrich; December 2002.
Working Paper no. 26(1.3M bytes) [PDF(408K bytes )]: "Patterns of Supreme Court Decision-Making, 1937-2000"; Andrew D. Martin and Kevin Quinn; October 2002.
Working Paper no. 25(1.0M bytes) [PDF(345K bytes )]: "Assessing Preference Change on the U.S. Supreme Court"; Andrew D. Martin and Kevin Quinn; October 2002.
Working Paper no. 24(2.3M bytes) [PDF(647K bytes )]: "An Integrated Computational Model of Multiparty Electoral Competition"; Kevin Quinn and Andrew D. Martin; October 2002.
Working Paper no. 23(568K bytes) [PDF(148K bytes )]: "An Assessment of Preferential Attachment as a Mechanism for Human Sexual Network Formation"; James Holland Jones and Mark S. Handcock; October 2002.
Working Paper no. 22(1.1M bytes) [PDF(186K bytes )]: "Marriage and Assortative Mating: How Have the Patterns Changed?"; Elaina Rose; July 2002.
Working Paper no. 21 [PDF(108K bytes )]: "Statistical Evidence Tells Tails of Human Sexual Contacts"; James Holland Jones and Mark S. Handcock; May 2002.
Working Paper no. 20 (417K bytes ) [PDF(194K bytes )]: "On convergence of least-squares identifies for infinite AR models"; Andrey Barabanov and Yulia Gel; January 2002.
Working Paper no. 19 (125K bytes ) [PDF( 94K bytes )]: "Discussion of Paper by Peter McCullagh"; Julian Besag; January 2002.
2001
Working Paper no. 18 (298K bytes ) [PDF(223K bytes )]: "Choosing the Link Function and Accounting for Link Uncertainty in Generalized Linear Models using Bayes Factors"; Claudia Czado and Adrian E. Raftery; December 2001.
Working Paper no. 17 (1.5M bytes ) [PDF(504K bytes )]: "Latent Space Approaches to Social Network Analysis"; Peter Hoff , Adrian E. Raftery and Mark S. Handcock; November 2001.
Working Paper no. 16 (824K bytes ) [PDF(474K bytes )]: "Bayesian Learning about Ideal Points of U.S. Supreme Court Justices, 1953-1999"; Andrew D. Martin and Kevin Quinn; September 2001.
Working Paper no. 15 (701K bytes ) [PDF(319K bytes )]: "A Parametric Two-Sided Model of Marriage"; John Allen Logan, Peter Hoff and Michael A. Newton; June 2001.
Working Paper no. 14 (1.3M bytes ) [PDF(293K bytes )]: "Covariance Models for Latent Structure in Longitudinal Data"; Marc A. Scott (NYU) and Mark S. Handcock; April 2001.
Working Paper no. 13 (486K bytes ) [PDF(391K bytes )]: "Statistics in Sociology, 1950-2000: A Selective Review."; Adrian E. Raftery; Feburary 2001.
Working Paper no. 12 (2.2M bytes ) [PDF(950K bytes )]
Figure ( 14K bytes ) [PDF(3.2K bytes )]: "Ecological Inference for 2 x 2 Tables."; Jon Wakefield; January 2001.
2000
Working Paper no. 11 (1.5M bytes ) [ PDF (1.1M bytes )]: "Model Based Clustering, Discriminant Analysis and Density Estimation."; Chris Fraley and Adrian Raftery.; October 2000.
Working Paper no. 10 (1.6M bytes ) [ PDF (601K bytes )]: "Bayesian Multidimensional Scaling and Choice of Dimension."; Man-Suk Oh and Adrian Raftery.; September 2000.
Working Paper no. 9 (536K bytes ) [ PDF (384K bytes )]: "Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Statistical Inference"; Julian Besag; September 2000.; Updated February 2002.
Working Paper no. 8 (785K bytes ) [ PDF ( 55K bytes )]: "How to Measure 'What People Do For a Living' in Research on the Socioeconomic Correlates of Health"; John Robert Warren and Hsiang-Hui Kuo.; August 2000.
Working Paper no. 7 (1.5M bytes ) [ PDF ( 97K bytes )]: "Family Dynamics Through Childhood: A Sibling Model of Behavior Problems"; Lingxin Hao and Ross Matsueda; April 2000.
Working Paper no. 6 (257K bytes ) [ PDF (313K bytes )]: "Commerce and Democracy"; Mohan Penubarti and Michael D. Ward; Abstract; March 2000.
Working Paper no. 5 (566K bytes ) [ PDF (466K bytes )]: "Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling Spatial Context with Categorical Variables in the Study and Prediction of War"; Michael D. Ward and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch.; Abstract; March 2000.
Working Paper no. 4 (532K bytes ) [ PDF (137K bytes )]: "Combining Registration-System and Survey Data to Estimate Birth Probabilities"; Mark S. Handcock , Sami M. Huovilainen and Michael S. Rendall.; Feburary 2000.
Working Paper no. 3 [ PDF ( 87K bytes )]: "How to Measure �What People Do For a Living� in Research on the Socioeconomic Correlates of Health."; John Robert Warren; Feburary 2000 - revised July 2000.
Working Paper no. 2 [ PDF (107K bytes )]: "Employment During High School: Consequences for Students' Grades in Academic Courses."; John Robert Warren , Mark S. Handcock and Robert D. Mare.; Feburary 2000.
1999
Working Paper no. 1 (344K bytes ) [ PDF (253K bytes )]: "Statistics in Sociology, 1950-2000: A Vignette."; Adrian E. Raftery; December 1999.

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