19th Annual Summer Political Methodology Meetings

Paper Submission
How to get to the UW from the airport
Map of the UW
Program
Housing Information
Restaurant Guide
Registration Information
Pictures from day 1

Submit Your Paper

Please submit your paper to the Political Methodology Electronic Paper Archive at the polmeth Web site, which will serve as the repository for the conference papers.

Detailed instructions to accomplish this follow.

  1. Send an email to: polmeth@clas.ufl.edu, with the subject header "POLMETH SUBMISSION".
  2. Attach your paper as a pdf (acrobat) file (zipped or gzipped if you like).
  3. In the body of the email, provide:

    author = "Last-name-of-first-author, first-name-of-first-author, all other author's names"
    title = "Title-of-your-paper"
    keywords = "any,keywords,you,choose,separated,by,commas"
    conference = "2002 Political Methodology Summer Meetings"


    Also include a text abstract of any length

If the pdf file is too large for either email system, send polmeth@clas.ufl.edu a note and a solution will be found.

How to get to the UW from SEATAC airport

Shuttles and buses run almost continuously around the clock, with scheduled departure and arrival times.

The Ground Transportation Information Booth is located on the third floor of the Parking Garage.

Shuttle services are also located on the third floor of the parking garage unless otherwise noted in the description. (The full-size buses pick up and drop off at the main terminal.) See Shuttle Express for shared ride door-to-door service.

Shuttle Express
425-981-7000
1-800-487-7433
Shared ride, door-to-door service to:
Auburn, Bellevue, Bothell, Everett, Federal Way, Fife, Issaquah, Kent, Kirkland, Lakewood, Mercer Island, Puyallup, Redmond, Renton, Seattle, Steilacoom, Tacoma, Totem Lake and Woodinville.

Other Info from Shuttle Express:
http://www.shuttleexpress.com/

Transportation option Pickup Window Fare
Share Ride Van (transportation center) Activate reservations at Shuttle Express booth in ground transportation center $23.00
Private Town Car (bagage claim) $55.00
Private Town Car (transportation center) $55.00
Private Van (transportation center) $70.00

(The above fares were found using the zip code 98195-- University zip code-- and the arrival time of 3:00pm. I'm sure anything during the day is about the same. Nighttime fares may be different, but can be checked on the website)

To speak to a Guest Support Representative please call 1.425.981.7000

Map of the UW

Map in jpg format (465 kB)

Preliminary Program 2002 Summer Methods Meeting

Michael D. Ward
Department of Political Science and Center for Statistics in the Social Sciences,
University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
USA, 98195, and Europe, Universite Pierre Mendes
France, Grenoble,
France, BP 38040;
email: mdw@u.washington.edu

Kevin Quinn
Department of Political Science and Center for Statistics in the Social Sciences,
University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
USA, 98195;
email: kmq@u.washington.edu

Thursday July 18

8:15am-8:30am
Welcome and Invocation
Room: Electrical Engineering 105
8:30am-10:00am
Paper: Kosuke Imai Causal Inference with Experimental Data: An Evaluation of Voter Mobilization Strategies
Discussant: Jason Barabas
Room: Electrical Engineering 105
10:00am-10:30am Coffee Break
10:30am-noon
Paper: James Honaker Estimation of Evolutionary Processes
Discussant: Jonathan Wand
Room: Electrical Engineering 105
12:30pm-1:30pm Lunch at Haggett Hall
12:30pm-1:30pm
Political Science Computer Lab, reserved for conference use
Room: Smith 220
2:00pm-3:30pm
Paper: Andrew Gelman, David Park, & Joseph Bafumi State Attitudes from National Polls: Using Hierarchical Logistic Regression and Post-stratification
Discussant: Doug Rivers
Room: Electrical Engineering 105
3:30pm-4:00pm Coffee Break
4:00pm-5:30pm
Plenary Address: Adrian Raftery, Statistical Inference for Deterministic Simulation Models
Room: Electrical Engineering 105
4:00pm-5:30pm
Political Science Computer Lab, reserved for conference use
Room: Smith 220
6:30pm-9:00pm BBQ McCarty Hall

Friday July 19

8:30-10:00am
Paper A:Janet Box-Steffensmeier and Suzanna DeBoef A Monte Carlo Analysis for Repeated Event Survival Data
Discussant: Jonathan Katz
Room: Electrical Engineering 105
Paper B: Walter Mebane and Jas Sekhon Robust Estimation of Overdispersed Multinomial Models for Count Data, with Outlier Detection
Discussant: Wendy Tam Cho
Room: Electrical Engineering 125
10:00am-10:30am Coffee Break
10:30am-noon
Paper A: Curt Signorino, Robert Walker and Muhammet A. Bas An Iterative Method for Estimating Statistical Strategic Models
Discussant: John Londregan
Room: Electrical Engineering 125
12:30-1:30pm Lunch at Haggett Hall
12:30pm-1:30pm
Political Science Computer Lab, reserved for conference use
Room: Smith 220
2:00pm-3:30pm
Paper A: Michael Herron and Kenneth Shotts Logical Inconsistency in King-based Ecological Regression
Discussant: Chris Adolph
Room: Electrical Engineering 105
Paper B: Adam Meirowitz & Josh Clinton Ideal Point Estimation with Relational and Substantive constraints: Analyzing the Compromise of 1790 and Quantifying the fruit of Jefferson's dinner party
Discussant: Andrew Martin
Room: Electrical Engineering 125
3:30pm-4:00pm Coffee Break
4:00pm-5:30pm
Paper A: Gary King, Joshua Salmon, Ajay Tandon, and Christopher Murray Enhancing the Validity and Cross-population Comparability of Survey Research
Discussant: Larry Bartels
Room: Electrical Engineering 105
Paper B: Brian McCuen and Rebecca Morton Tactical Coalition Voting
Discussant: David Epstein
Room: Electrical Engineering 125
5:30pm-6:30pm
Political Science Computer Lab, reserved for conference use
Room: Smith 220
6:00-9:00pm Pizza, Posters, and Pils, Gowen Hall
Abstracts for the posters
Instructions for Poster Presentations
  1. Jack Buckley, SUNY Stony Brook, Diffusion or Confusion? Modeling Policy Diffusion with Discrete Event History Analysis
  2. Jamie Carson, Michigan State University, The Impact of Legislative Behavior on Candidate Competition in House and Senate Elections: A Strategic Choice Analysis
  3. Timothy Carter, University of Rochester, United Nations Intervention Decisions: A Quantitative Examination
  4. Chris Den Hartog, UCSD, The Nationalization of Electoral Tides in the Nineteenth-Century House of Representatives
  5. Sean Ehrlich, University of Michigan, The Dynamics of U.S. Tariff Rates and Trade Policy
  6. Nancy Enright, University of Cincinnati, Control Charting Bureaucratic Output
  7. Michael Franz & Rodolfo Espino, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Retesting Committee Composition Hypotheses for the U.S. Congress
  8. Jennifer Gandhi, New York University, The Impact of Dictatorial Institutions on Policy
  9. Matt Golder, New York University, Explaining Variation in the Success of Extreme Right Parties in Western Europe: Selection Bias and Interaction Effects
  10. D. Sunshine Hillygus, Stanford University, A Transition Model of the Turnout Decision in Election 2000
  11. Wonjae Hwang, Michigan State University, The Dynamic Relationship Between Political Stability and Interstate Conflict:
  12. Cindy Kam, University of Michigan, Campaigns and Political Cognition
  13. Orit Kedar, Harvard University, Balancing the Seesaw: Rationality and Menu Dependence in Voter Behavior
  14. Luke Keele, UNC-Chapel Hill, Dynamic Modeling Strategies for Trust in Government
  15. Jacob Kline, Harvard University, Reconsidering the Democratic Civil Peace
  16. Gregory Koger, UCLA, A Bicameral Comparison of Congressional Partisanship
  17. Will Lowe, CBRSS, Harvard University Deterministic sampling methods for non-linear time series analysis
  18. Corinne McConnaughy, University of Michigan, Why Woman Suffrage? Explaining Variance in Time to Woman Suffrage Adoption Among the American States
  19. Stephanie McWhorter, University of California, San Diego, Freedom's Curse? Understanding Violence in New States
  20. Jennifer Nicoll Victor, Washington University in St. Louis, Convincing Congress: Interest Group Influence Over Congressional Legislation
  21. Angela O'Mahony, University of California, San Diego, Determinants of Monetary Regimes: The Interrelated Choices of Monetary Policy, Exchange Rates and Capital Restrictions
  22. Alison Post, Harvard University, A Geographic Angle on "Political Business Cycles"
  23. Kirk Randazzo, Michigan State University, The Federal Courts and U.S. Foreign Policy
  24. Chad Rector, University of California, San Diego, The Australian Transition from International Organization to Federal Union
  25. Travis Ridout, University of Wisconsin- Madison, Modeling the Effects of the Campaign Information Environment on Voter Learning
  26. Darren Schreiber & Marco Iacoboni (UCLA Neuroscience), UCLA, Thinking About Politics: Three fMRI Experiments Studying Sophistication, Race, Ideology, and Attitudes
  27. Erin Simpson, Wendy Pealman, & Michael Horowitz, Harvard University, Violence and Cooperation in Israel and Palestine: An Evaluation of Event Count Models and Coding Schemes
  28. Tracy Sulkin and John Wilkerson, University of Washington, Preferences, Party or Position- Taking?
  29. Shawn Treier, Stanford University, Electoral Pressure and Policy Change: Conversion or Replacement?
  30. Robert Walker, University of Rochester, Statistical Models for Substitution Effects

Saturday July 20

8:30-10:00am
Paper: Mark Handcock and Martina Morris Models and Inference for Social Networks
and
Peter Hoff, Adrian Raftery, and Mark Handcock Latent Space Approaches to Social Network Analysis
Discussant: Mike Ward and Burt Monroe
Room: Electrical Engineering 105
10:00am-10:30am Coffee Break
10:30am-noon
Paper:Adam Berinsky and Jeff Lewis Estimating Voters' Taste for Risk: Candidate Choice under Uncertainty
Discussant: Chris Achen
Room: Electrical Engineering 105
12:30-1:30pm Lunch at Haggett Hall
12:30pm-1:30pm
Political Science Computer Lab, reserved for conference use
Room: Smith 220
2:00pm-3:30pm
Paper A: Henry Brady Models of Causal Inference: Going Beyond the Neyman-Rubin-Holland Theory
Discussant: Mark Handcock
Room: Electrical Engineering 105
4:00pm-5:30pm Business Meeting
Room: Electrical Engineering 105
5:30pm-6:30pm
Political Science Computer Lab, reserved for conference use
Room: Smith 220
6:30pm-9:00pm Drinks and Dinner: University of Washington Faculty Club
Menu: Northwest Buffet Dinner
Fresh Baked Rolls and Butter
Wild Green Salad with Homemade Dressing
Pasta Salad with Fresh Dill and Bay Scallops
Baked Salmon in Lemon Thyme, Cracked Pepper, and Garlic Butter Sauce
Steamed Clams and Mussels with White Wine, Butter, and Fresh Herbs
Rice Pilaf
Sauteed Seasonal Vegetables
Apple Cobbler with Spiced Whipped Cream
Coffee

Other Invited Participants

Michael Bailey, Valentina Bali, Larry Bartels, Nathaniel Beck, Fred Boehmke, Patrick Brandt, Kevin Clarke, Harold Clarke, David Davis, Robert Erikson, Charles Franklin, Robert J Franzese Jr., Jeff Gill, Garrett Glasgow, Jude Hays, John Jackson, Bill Jacoby, Jonathan Katz, Paul Kellstedt, Dean Lacy, Jan Leighley, Alex Liu, Samantha Luks, Kenneth McCue, Jonathan Nagler, Sharyn O'Halloran, Dave Peterson, Mohan Rao, Mitchell Sanders, John Scholz, Philip Schrodt, Marianne Stewart, Jim Stimson, Joshua Tucker, Maurits Van der Veen, Paul Warwick, Gregory Wawro, Andrew Whitford, Dan Wood, Chris Zorn

Housing Information

On behalf of the Department of Housing and Food Services, we are pleased that you have selected the University of Washington residence halls for your conference accommodations. Our goal is to provide quality housing and food services to residence hall guests. We set high standards for the services we provide, and your comments are welcome and appreciated. Feel free to contact me at the telephone number and email address below. We look forward to your visit!
Debbie Proctor, Administrator
Conference Services

Accommodations: All rooms are furnished with twin beds and local-access telephones with voice mail. (Long distance calls may be placed using a credit card or prepaid calling card.) Bed linen and towels are provided. Beds are made and fresh towels are provided daily. Television lounges, kitchenettes with microwave ovens, laundry facilities, and vending machines are located throughout each building. Rooms share community bath facilities. Males and females are permitted to occupy the same room on request. This may cause the appropriate bathroom for one gender to be located one floor above or below the assigned room.

Smoking is prohibited in all sleeping rooms and public areas of the residence halls. Alcohol usage is prohibited in all areas except by persons of legal ageainn private quarters.

All of the residence hall front desks are open until 11:00 pm (you will be checking into Haggett). The McCarty front desk is open 24 hours a day, so if you arrive on campus later than 11pm, you can check in at the McCarty desk and they can get your keys to your room. Please see the campus map linked above for locations.

Things to Bring: Listed below are some items you might bring along to make your stay on campus more comfortable. Seattle weather is generally mild, with temperatures averaging 70-80 degress F. Heat waves occur periodically and most campus buildings, including the residence halls, are not air-conditioned; a fan is placed in each room. Be prepared for cooler evenings and occasional rain showers!

  • alarm clock
  • lounge wear (appropriate for a common living area)
  • shower slippers
  • umbrella and/or raincoat (only tourists have these two items)

Should you prefer to bring your own pillow or towels, please be sure to choose a color other than white! The University of Washington is a pedestrian campus, bring comfortable walking shoes and be prepared to walk (i.e., you can't drive around on campus, but won't need to).

Taxi/Shuttle: Taxi fare is approximately $35-$40 from SeaTac Airport. Shuttle Express may be the easiest way to and from the Airport. You can reserve at www. ShuttleExpress.com or by calling 425.981.7000. According to their summer 2002 brochure, the first passenger is $16 to UDistrict hotels & the UW ($10 for the second guest and $6 for each additional guest). A town car from the same company costs about $40, and seats 3 or 4.

Parking: The current daily rate is $7 Monday through Friday and $3 on Saturday, 7 a.m. to 12 noon. There is no charge to park on campus from 12 noon on Saturday to 12 midnight on Sunday or holidays. A few parking areas near the residence halls are assigned on a first-come, first-served basis. The parking rates are subject to change without notice. You will be required to purchase a daily parking permit upon entrance to the campus (except Sunday and holidays). Long-term permits, valid for the duration of your stay, will be available for purchase at the residence hall desk.

Keys: When you check in, you will be issued a room key, a building entrance key and possibly a bathroom key. Lost keys present a serious security risk for the residence halls. A room key lost or not returned will result in an immediate lock change for which you will be charged $42.

Driving to Campus
Haggett Hall
(From Seatac follow signs for freeways, then signs for Seattle and you will be en route) Via Interstate 5, exit at NE 45th Street and turn east (right if traveling north (i.e., from the airport), left if traveling south). To reach Haggett Hall, travel east on NE 45th Street to 17th Avenue NE and turn south (right) onto campus. Stop at the parking gate if it is open, or proceed to Stevens Way and turn left. Follow Stevens Way until you reach Whitman Court (to the left). After turning left onto Whitman Court, you will find Haggett Hall on the right-hand side of the road.

Shuttle Express may be the easiest way to and from the Airport. You can reserve at www. ShuttleExpress.com or by calling 425.981.7000. According to their summer 2002 brochure, the first passenger is $16 to UDistrict hotels ($10 for the second guest and $6 for each additional guest). A town car from the same company costs about $40, and seats 3 or 4.

Restaurants in Seattle

Seattle presents a wide array of excellent restaurants. In my opinion, it is on a par with both San Francisco and New York in terms of the quality of food and preparation. Not to mention price.

Here are some links that may provide some suggestions:

  • Seattle CitySearch.com
  • Our famous computer science department once maintained a very nice list of local restaurants, reviewed by faculty. That list is now replaced with the following: "Allow us to suggest a web search on <> as a way to continue your quest for culinary excellence."

Here are some suggestions:

  1. Get a reservation. Especially Friday night. You won't be a happy camper if you think you can just walk in and get a table.
  2. Best Steak Houses:
    1. Metropolitan Grill, 820 2nd Avenue Seattle, WA 206-624-3287
    2. Daniel's Broiler (on Lake Union). 809 Fairview Place NE, Seattle, WA, 206.621.8262
  3. Best Bistros Down/Bell Town:
    1. Dahlia Lounge, 2001 Fourth Avenue, Seattle, WA 98121, 206.682.4142
    2. Etta's Seafood, 2020 Western Avenue, Seattle WA, 98121, 206.443.6000
    3. Palace Kitchen, 2030 Fifth Avenue, Seattle WA, 98121, 206.448.2001
    4. Avenue One, 1921 1st Avenue, Seattle, WA 98101, 206.441.6139 (great bar; super wine list; get table in back room overlooking water if possible), http://www.avenueone.citysearch.com/4.html.
    5. Le Pichet, 1933 First Ave., 206-256-1499. (very tiny, but the real deal for French brasserie food in Seattle).
    6. Campagne, 86 Pine St Seattle, WA 98101, 206.728.2800.
    7. Cafe Campagne, 1600 Post Alley, Seattle, WA 98101-1567, 206.728.2233. Downstairs, less formal, cheaper, (more fun) bistro cousin.
    8. Queen City Grill, 2201 First Ave Seattle, WA 98121, 206.443.0975
    9. Brasa, 2107 Third Ave. Seattle, WA 98121, 206.728.4220
    10. Cascadia, 2328 First Ave, Seattle, WA 98121, 206.448.8884, www.cascadiarestaurant.com (you will pay)
    11. Lampreia, 2400 1st Avenue, 206.443.3301
    12. Rovers, 2808 E. Madison, Seattle WA 98112, 206.325.7442, or at http://www.rovers-seattle.com/index.html, this one will cost you. It is not downtown, but is fairly close to the Dub. (No, not that Dub).
    13. Wild Ginger, 1401 3rd Ave, Seattle, WA 98101, 206.623.4450
    14. Flying Fish, 2234 First Avenue, Seattle, WA 98101, 206.728.8595
    15. Fandango, 2313 First Avenue, Seattle, WA, 206.441.1188.

The conference will have an informal BBQ on Thursday evening, as well as a more formal dinner at the Faculty Club on Saturday.